The Bring Chicago Home referendum to fund homelessness prevention through a tax hike on the sale of high-end properties appears to be heading for defeat, potentially squashing one of Mayor Brandon Johnson’s top campaign promises.

With 98% of precincts reported, 54% of voters said ‘no’ to the referendum, with 46% in support. A simple majority is needed for passage.

But with more than 100,000 mail-in ballots outstanding, and roughly 23,000 votes separating the decision, neither the opponents nor supporters of the measure declared victory or defeat Tuesday night.

“Votes are still being counted, but whatever the result, this is not a time for celebrations. Everyone in Chicago deserves housing stability,” said Jeff Baker, CEO of Illinois Realtors, which raised over $1.6 million from its state and national chapters to oppose the ballot measure. “The vote on this referendum echoes the resounding sentiment we hear from Chicago’s homeowners, housing providers and small businesses, that we cannot continue to rely on real estate taxes to fund poorly conceived programs.”

Farzin Parang, the executive director of the Building Owners and Managers Association of Chicago, said while “homelessness is a critical problem,” the group is “grateful to everyone who spoke out against the constant real estate tax increases in our city.”

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“This massive tax increase would hurt homeowners, renters, union workers, and businesses across Chicago,” Parang said in a statement.

Tuesday’s apparent outcome would be a rejection of the tax proposal, which had been sweetened with a tax cut for properties valued under $1 million. State law mandates a majority of voters approve a real estate transfer tax increase, and without voter approval the City Council lacks the authority to enact it.

What remains unclear is whether organizers will be eyeing the November election, which will likely see higher turnout, as the stage for their next attempt.

Tuesday’s turnout was “shockingly low,” a spokesperson for the Chicago election board said. As polls closed, just 20.2% of all registered voters had cast their ballots, though mail-in ballots are still being tallied. The lowest turnout was among 17- to 24-year-olds — as just 3.5% of that age group voted.

Under the Bring Chicago Home proposal, the real estate transfer tax imposed on the sale of property would have changed from a flat tax rate of .75% to a three-tiered, marginal tax. The portion of property valued under $1 million would see a tax cut to a rate of .6%, while the portion of property valued over $1 million and $1.5 million would see tax increases to rates of 2% and 3%, respectively. Supporters estimate $100 million would be raised annually from the tax increase, although revenue would be impacted by how the real estate market performs.

For more than five years organizers have tried to put the issue before voters, and despite the referendum’s poor showing Tuesday, it was a decisive marker of just how far the campaign has come. In November 2022 under former Mayor Lori Lightfoot, supporters couldn’t secure enough alderpersons to even hold a hearing on the issue — but a year later that had changed with the election of Johnson and a more progressive City Council.

Ald. Maria Hadden, 49th Ward, said she was proud of the grassroots movement that led to the question even making it before voters.

“I don’t think it speaks to how progressive voters are,” Hadden said, later adding: “What does it say when it’s the people controlling your rents — your commercial and residential rents — are telling you that they don’t want to pay their fair share to help to solve homelessness?”

Hadden, one of the lead sponsors of the measure, said at an election night watch party in the Austin neighborhood that she was anxious when early returns showed opponents leading the way. She did not say if supporters would try again to pass the referendum during the November general election.

Regardless of the outcome, Hadden said supporters still aim to end homelessness.

“The goal doesn’t change. I don’t know if the method will remain the same, right? We will certainly have to have time to really dig into the details and figure out what’s the best strategy,” Hadden said. “But it’s still going to be: We’ve got some programs that we know work. We know they need funding. We don’t have the funding and how are we going to get it?”

Patricia Franklin, who has experienced homelessness and is now a grassroots leader for the Chicago Coalition for the Homeless, was at the polls educating voters Tuesday. Franklin said some voters thought the proposal meant all real estate transfer taxes would be going up — despite the tax rate being cut 20% for properties under $1 million.

“I’ve got my fingers crossed and I really hope it passes,” Franklin said. “But if not, I’ll be door knocking and phone calling to try to get it for November. Maybe we’ll have a better turnout.”

The ballot question had survived an 11th-hour lawsuit from real estate groups that aimed to block voters from deciding the issue altogether. The legal challenge stretched all the way to the Illinois Supreme Court, which last week denied real estate groups’ appeal and cemented that votes on the referendum will be counted.

A coalition of progressive groups — including United Working Families, Chicago Coalition for the Homeless, the Chicago Teachers Union and Service Employees International Union, and residents experiencing homelessness — embarked on a grassroots campaign knocking doors and urging people to vote despite a court ruling that had left the referendum’s status in flux for a week-and-a-half.

In response to a lawsuit seeking to block the Bring Chicago Home referendum from the ballot, an Illinois appellate court ruled it was “premature” for the courts to intervene when the election was merely one step of many in the legislative process.

One of the critiques of the proposal was the referendum’s purpose of “addressing homelessness” was too vague. If voters had approved the measure, alderpersons would have finalized and voted on a spending ordinance to establish a dedicated fund for the revenue and an advisory board to give recommendations.

More than $5.5 million dollars poured into the campaign over the referendum since it was approved by the City Council in November, with both opponents and supporters trying to appeal to voters’ sense of altruism.

Supporters argue the city needs a dedicated funding stream to help serve the rising number of people experiencing homelessness. An estimated 68,440 people were unhoused in 2021, including those who were living “doubled up,” according to the Chicago Coalition for the Homeless. They argue the wealthy need to pay their fair share and that the majority of home sales, 93%, will see a tax cut from the plan.

Meanwhile, the real estate industry urged voters to think about the small business and private landlords who will experience the tax increase. And they’ve warned the still recovering commercial real estate industry will bear the brunt of the tax and that a downturn in downtown office buildings’ property values will lead to rising property taxes for homeowners across the city’s neighborhoods.

Opponents to the measure painted the issue as a referendum on Johnson’s tenure as mayor writ large. An ad paid for by the “Keep Chicago Affordable” political action committee, which is largely funded by a nonprofit that allows donors to not disclose their identities, asked: “Is Chicago on the right track?” The ad tied the tax to Johnson’s handling of crime and the arrival of thousands of asylum-seekers to the city.

Franklin, the grassroots leader, said she hoped the referendum could have been a chance to show “that there is love and kindness in Chicago.”

“When you die, you can’t take anything with you. When you leave, leave something to show that you did care about something other than money,” Franklin said. “Because money is going to be here always, and it would be nice if you share with those that didn’t have — that don’t have.”

About 109,975 mail ballots were still outstanding as of Monday night, according to the Chicago Board of Elections, and those outstanding votes were a point supporters raised during speeches as they chanted “we will not give up.”

“While the results for this race may not be final, the passion of both sides is clear: We all want to make Chicago a better place to live,” said Michael Glasser, president of the Neighborhood Building Owners Alliance of Chicago, one of the groups that sued to block the referendum.

Tessa Weinberg and Mariah Woelfel cover Chicago government and politics for WBEZ.